Consequence Modeling

Consequence Modeling & Risk Assessment

• Advanced Consequence Analysis by CFD Method: In many issues related to the consequence analysis and estimation of the damage caused by incidents, it is necessary to perform the calculations more completely than conventional methods. In this regard, the use of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) methods is very effective. The effects of the roughness of the surface are included in the calculations and therefore have much higher accuracy than analytical models. Advantages include considering the effects of various obstacles (equipment, buildings) in the spread of gas and flame, comprehensive modeling of physical phenomena, considering mitigation strategies, and optimization.

• Risk Assessment: SAFETI software is used to calculate the risk. The relevant results are shown in the form of individual risk per year and societal risk in the form of F-N curves (Frequency – Number of fatality). The Potential loss of life risk, which represents the average number of fatalities per year, actually combines frequency and fatalities, and is used to estimate the cost of loss.

• Dispersion and Explosion Study: Evaluates the dispersion and explosion scenarios, their occurrence frequencies, and the possible consequences for the Unit and people using databases and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools to simulate their effects in each region of the Unit. The use of FLACS (3D CFD explosion simulation software) is preferred for explosion calculations.